Juventude 2-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Sport Recife at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 15 July 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventude — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Juventude are significantly better at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 5L across 6 road games this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juventude 0.50 PPG, Sport Recife 0.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Juventude have won 1, Sport Recife 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with Sport Recife winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Juventude in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 36% versus Sport Recife 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 46% | Sport Recife 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.42 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.903 / defence 1.154 | Sport Recife attack 0.707 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.935. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Juventude games / 11 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 20%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Sport Recife 5.00. Juventude hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 50% | Sport Recife 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Jul 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 52% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Juventude 1.42 / Sport Recife 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.903 / def 1.154 | Sport Recife attack 0.707 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.935 • Poisson stance: Juventude (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sport Recife xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Sport Recife kick off?
Juventude vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 15 July 2025 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Juventude 2 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Juventude vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Sport Recife part of?
Juventude vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 52% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Juventude and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sport Recife?
Record (2 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 1W.
What form are Juventude and Sport Recife in?
Juventude (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.90) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.60
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.18
0.76
Sport Recife xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
5%
20.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Juventude and 0.76 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventude's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 8L across 11 games — 0.27 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventude by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 0W 1D 5L across 6 trips, a 0.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.45 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Sport Recife away?
Juventude's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.33 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Juventude go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Juventude's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Juventude
0
Draws
1
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Sport Recife have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2025, when Sport Recife 0-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Sport Recife?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 50%, Sport Recife 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Juventude) and 50% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Juventude have failed to score in 33% of games; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juventude's recent matches and 50% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 50% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.42 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Sport Recife attack 0.71 / defence 1.23, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 52% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 20%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 46%, Sport Recife 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Sport Recife's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventude arrived the stronger side — 0.73 PPG against 0.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.