Fluminense 1-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Fluminense versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atletico Paranaense have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Fluminense's favour (1.60 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Fluminense 3W, Atletico Paranaense 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 39% versus Atletico Paranaense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 35% | Atletico Paranaense 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.20 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.792 / defence 0.799 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.954 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.996. Fluminense's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fluminense's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 67 Fluminense games / 66 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 23%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Paranaense 4.35. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 20% | Atletico Paranaense 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Oct 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Fluminense 1.20 / Atletico Paranaense 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.792 / def 0.799 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.954 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.357 / away 0.996 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Atletico Paranaense xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 23:30 on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Fluminense 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 46% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (6 meetings): Fluminense 3W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.79x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.95x) against Fluminense's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.17
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.96
0.76
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.76 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense come into this having played 66 games, going 24W 14D 28L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Atletico Paranaense sit at 1.32 PPG from 66 outings (22W 21D 23L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Fluminense against 1.32 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fluminense's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Paranaense have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.21 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 24W 14D 28L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 21D 23L in their last 66 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Fluminense's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.91 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 1-4 on 30 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
From 9 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Fluminense 3-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 48%, Atletico Paranaense 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Fluminense and 33% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fluminense's recent matches and 48% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fluminense's recent games and 33% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.20 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.76 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.79 / defence 0.80 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico Paranaense 23%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 35%, Atletico Paranaense 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.30 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.