Union St. Gilloise 0-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Club Brugge KV at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV meet at Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Joseph Mariën — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Joseph Mariën.
Club Brugge KV have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Club Brugge KV's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Club Brugge KV are 0.70 PPG clear of Union St. Gilloise in recent Jupiler Pro League fixtures (2.80 vs 2.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Union St. Gilloise — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Club Brugge KV — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 47% versus Club Brugge KV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 61% | Club Brugge KV 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.089 / defence 0.908 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.251 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.308. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Union St. Gilloise games / 34 Club Brugge KV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 39%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Club Brugge KV 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Club Brugge KV at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Club Brugge KV if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union St. Gilloise 40% | Club Brugge KV 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.41 / Club Brugge KV 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 1.089 / def 0.908 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.251 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Club Brugge KV (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Club Brugge KV xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Union St. Gilloise 0 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 36% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Club Brugge KV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV will score (BTTS).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in?
Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Club Brugge KV (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union St. Gilloise's attack at 1.09x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge KV's attack (1.25x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge KV Win
36%
2.78
25%
4.04
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.90
1.49
Club Brugge KV xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.28
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.49 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 36 games, going 25W 6D 5L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Club Brugge KV sit at 2.11 PPG from 36 outings (22W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.25 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 2.11 for Club Brugge KV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge KV have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 2.03 scored and 1.03 conceded. Club Brugge KV's attacking output running into Union St. Gilloise's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Club Brugge KV in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Current Season
Club Brugge KV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 25W 6D 5L in their last 36 games (2.25 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 22W 10D 4L in their last 36 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Club Brugge KV's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.00 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge KV won 5-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Club Brugge KV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union St. Gilloise
4
Draws
3
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV?
From 10 meetings on record, Union St. Gilloise have won 3, Club Brugge KV have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Club Brugge KV 5-0 Union St. Gilloise.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 44%, Club Brugge KV 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Union St. Gilloise) and 61% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Club Brugge KV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union St. Gilloise play Club Brugge KV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 61% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union St. Gilloise vs Club Brugge KV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 61% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Club Brugge KV tend to score early?
Union St. Gilloise have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Club Brugge KV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge KV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Union St. Gilloise 0-2 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Championship Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.41 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.49 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.25 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 36% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 39%, with Club Brugge KV to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 61%, Club Brugge KV 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 2.25 PPG, Club Brugge KV 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge KV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.