Standard Liege 2-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liege at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liege vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liege versus St. Truiden in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liege's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liege, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liege at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
St. Truiden have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Standard Liege, 1.40 for St. Truiden — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Standard Liege 1W, St. Truiden 1W, 4D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Standard Liege half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
St. Truiden half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 48% versus St. Truiden 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 46% | St. Truiden 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.795 / defence 0.816 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.090. Standard Liege's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Standard Liege games / 42 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 42% | Draw 33% | St. Truiden 24%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | St. Truiden 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liege at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Standard Liege if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Standard Liege 40% | St. Truiden 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 42% | Draw 33% | St. Truiden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Standard Liege 1.40 / St. Truiden 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.795 / def 0.816 | St. Truiden attack 1.149 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Standard Liege (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.02
St. Truiden xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kick off?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Standard Liege 2 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden part of?
Standard Liege vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 42% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Standard Liege the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Standard Liege and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
Record (6 meetings): Standard Liege 1W | Draws 4 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Standard Liege's attack at 0.80x the league average against St. Truiden's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St. Truiden's attack (1.15x) against Standard Liege's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liege Win
42%
2.36
33%
3.01
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
St. Truiden xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
16.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.02 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs St. Truiden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Standard Liege's recent record stands at 12W 18D 22L from 52 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Standard Liege is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 16W 19D 17L across 52 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Standard Liege against 1.29 for St. Truiden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Standard Liege have managed 9W 10D 7L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St. Truiden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Standard Liege come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liege are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.27 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 12W 18D 22L in their last 52 games (1.04 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 16W 19D 17L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or St. Truiden away?
Standard Liege's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.42 PPG; St. Truiden away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 26 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
St. Truiden go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liege have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
4
Draws
3
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, St. Truiden have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2025, when Standard Liege 1-2 St. Truiden.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 38%, St. Truiden 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Standard Liege) and 54% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Standard Liege have failed to score in 42% of games; St. Truiden in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 62% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Standard Liege's recent games and 54% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liege edge out St. Truiden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liege beat St. Truiden 2-1 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.40 xG and St. Truiden 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.80 / defence 0.82 against St. Truiden attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 42% | Draw 33% | St. Truiden 24%, with Standard Liege to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 46%, St. Truiden 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
St. Truiden's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.04 PPG, St. Truiden 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liege win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.