St. Truiden 2-1 KV Mechelen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KV Mechelen at 34% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St. Truiden welcome KV Mechelen to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, St. Truiden stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St. Truiden's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, KV Mechelen have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
KV Mechelen's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. KV Mechelen are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
St. Truiden hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for KV Mechelen and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended St. Truiden 2–1 KV Mechelen — a St. Truiden win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both St. Truiden and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
KV Mechelen trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 58% versus KV Mechelen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 45% | KV Mechelen 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.40 xG and KV Mechelen 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.003 / defence 1.077 | KV Mechelen attack 1.267 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.030. KV Mechelen have an above-average attack rating of 1.267, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from St. Truiden's last 43 games and KV Mechelen's last 43.
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 2.94 | Draw 3.16 | KV Mechelen 2.92. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.40 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — St. Truiden 34% and KV Mechelen 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (St. Truiden's last 10 home games and KV Mechelen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St. Truiden 70% (last 10 home games) | KV Mechelen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG St. Truiden 1.40 / KV Mechelen 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.003 / def 1.077 | KV Mechelen attack 1.267 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — St. Truiden and KV Mechelen level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.41
KV Mechelen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen FAQs
What time does St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kick off?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 8 November 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden 2 - 1 KV Mechelen.
Where is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen part of?
St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 34% chance of winning, KV Mechelen a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both St. Truiden and KV Mechelen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 1.00x the league average against KV Mechelen's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KV Mechelen's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St. Truiden's last 43 games and KV Mechelen's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KV Mechelen Win
34%
2.94
32%
3.16
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.80
1.41
KV Mechelen xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.41 for KV Mechelen, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 16W 19D 18L from 53 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five.
KV Mechelen, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 19L across 53 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St. Truiden on 1.26 PPG, KV Mechelen on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 12W 9D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — St. Truiden are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
KV Mechelen's away record stands at 10W 5D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; KV Mechelen are on 1.62 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
KV Mechelen
Blended
St. Truiden (Home) vs KV Mechelen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St. Truiden
Blended
KV Mechelen
Blended
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Form FAQs
What form are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 16W 19D 18L in their last 53 games (1.26 PPG), while KV Mechelen have gone 24W 10D 19L in their last 53 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or KV Mechelen away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.73 PPG; KV Mechelen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or KV Mechelen been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, KV Mechelen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when St. Truiden won KV Mechelen 1-4 St. Truiden.
St. Truiden's record when hosting KV Mechelen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
St. Truiden
1
Draws
1
KV Mechelen
Recent Meetings
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St. Truiden have won 8, KV Mechelen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and KV Mechelen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: KV Mechelen 4-3 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and KV Mechelen?
St. Truiden have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
KV Mechelen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 54%, KV Mechelen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (St. Truiden) and 46% (KV Mechelen).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; KV Mechelen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / KV Mechelen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St. Truiden vs KV Mechelen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 50% of KV Mechelen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of St. Truiden's recent games and 46% of KV Mechelen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and KV Mechelen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 62% of KV Mechelen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as St. Truiden defy the odds to beat KV Mechelen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden beat KV Mechelen 2-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.40 xG and KV Mechelen 1.41 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against KV Mechelen attack 1.27 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 34% | Draw 32% | KV Mechelen 34%, with St. Truiden to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 45%, KV Mechelen 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
KV Mechelen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St. Truiden 1.26 PPG, KV Mechelen 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St. Truiden win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.