St. Truiden 1-1 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St. Truiden host Genk at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
St. Truiden — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's home record at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genk stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genk have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — St. Truiden at 1.40 PPG versus Genk's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
St. Truiden in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Genk in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 47% versus Genk 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 42% | Genk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.03 xG and Genk 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.776 / defence 0.973 | Genk attack 1.199 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.211. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.776 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 St. Truiden games / 55 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 33% | Genk 43%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Genk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: St. Truiden 40% | Genk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 24% | Draw 33% | Genk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG St. Truiden 1.03 / Genk 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.776 / def 0.973 | Genk attack 1.199 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Genk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Genk xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Genk kick off?
St. Truiden vs Genk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Genk.
Where is St. Truiden vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Genk part of?
St. Truiden vs Genk is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 24% chance of winning, Genk a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St. Truiden and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
Record (5 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 3 | Genk 1W.
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Genk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates St. Truiden's attack at 0.78x the league average against Genk's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
24%
4.08
33%
3.04
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.45
1.41
Genk xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.77
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.41 for Genk, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 18D 20L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.87 PPG from 55 outings (29W 16D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of St. Truiden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
St. Truiden's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.70 points per game from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Genk in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 17W 18D 20L in their last 55 games (1.25 PPG), while Genk have gone 29W 16D 10L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.37 PPG; Genk away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genk go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Genk specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
St. Truiden
5
Draws
4
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 1, Genk have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Genk 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 41%, Genk 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (St. Truiden) and 59% (Genk).
On the defensive side: St. Truiden have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 63% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of St. Truiden's recent games and 59% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Genk tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Genk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Genk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St. Truiden and Genk finished level at 1-1 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.03 xG and Genk 1.41 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.78 / defence 0.97 against Genk attack 1.20 / defence 0.85, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 24% | Draw 33% | Genk 43%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 42%, Genk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Genk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.