Anderlecht 2-2 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Union St. Gilloise travel to Lotto Park to take on Anderlecht. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Anderlecht have posted 8W 2D 0L at Lotto Park — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Union St. Gilloise have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Anderlecht 2.20 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Anderlecht register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Union St. Gilloise in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union St. Gilloise trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 59% and Union St. Gilloise 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 52% | Union St. Gilloise 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.229 / defence 0.910 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.332 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.185. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Anderlecht games / 55 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Union St. Gilloise 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Anderlecht 1.56 / Union St. Gilloise 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.229 / def 0.910 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.332 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Union St. Gilloise xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Anderlecht 2 - 2 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 38% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.23x the league average against Union St. Gilloise's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.43
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
3.00
1.44
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.44 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 25W 14D 15L from 54 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise, meanwhile, have gone 37W 10D 7L across 54 games — 2.24 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union St. Gilloise by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Anderlecht heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 13W 6D 7L from 26 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union St. Gilloise's away record stands at 17W 7D 2L across 26 trips, a 2.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Anderlecht are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union St. Gilloise in 69%.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 25W 14D 15L in their last 54 games (1.65 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 37W 10D 7L in their last 54 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.73 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Union St. Gilloise have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Union St. Gilloise specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Anderlecht
2
Draws
6
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 2, Union St. Gilloise have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Union St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Anderlecht at 65%, Union St. Gilloise at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Anderlecht and 62% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Anderlecht's games and 77% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Anderlecht's matches and 62% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 22, as Anderlecht and Union St. Gilloise drew 2-2 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.56 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.44 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.23 / defence 0.91 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 38% | Draw 29% | Union St. Gilloise 33%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 52%, Union St. Gilloise 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.