Lommel United 0-1 Kortrijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Kortrijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Kortrijk at Soeverein Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 18:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Lommel United have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lommel United haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 6W 1D 3L at Soeverein Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kortrijk — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kortrijk's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lommel United have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kortrijk in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus Kortrijk 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | Kortrijk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.42 xG and Kortrijk 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Kortrijk attack 0.838 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.174. Data: 0 Lommel United games / 64 Kortrijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 30%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Kortrijk 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lommel United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lommel United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 60% | Kortrijk 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Kortrijk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.42 / Kortrijk 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Kortrijk attack 0.838 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Kortrijk xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Kortrijk kick off?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Lommel United 0 - 1 Kortrijk.
Where is Lommel United vs Kortrijk being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Kortrijk part of?
Lommel United vs Kortrijk is a Relegation Round fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 44% chance of winning, Kortrijk a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and Kortrijk will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Kortrijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Kortrijk in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Kortrijk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (0.85) and Kortrijk's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kortrijk's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.80
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.55
1.13
Kortrijk xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Kortrijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.13 for Kortrijk, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Kortrijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Lommel United have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 16W 3D 13L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. Lommel United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Kortrijk's form line: 8W 7D 17L from 32 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kortrijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lommel United have posted 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (8W 1D 7L).
On the road, Kortrijk have gone 3W 4D 9L from 16 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Kortrijk are on 0.81 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Pre-Season
Kortrijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Kortrijk in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 16W 3D 13L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Kortrijk have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Kortrijk away?
Lommel United's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.56 PPG; Kortrijk away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting Kortrijk specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Lommel United
1
Draws
3
Kortrijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 0, Kortrijk have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Kortrijk last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Lommel United 1-1 Kortrijk.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Kortrijk?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 56%, Kortrijk 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 44% (Kortrijk).
On the defensive side: Kortrijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Kortrijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Kortrijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lommel United's recent matches and 31% of Kortrijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs Kortrijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lommel United's recent games and 44% of Kortrijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and Kortrijk tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kortrijk in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kortrijk defy the odds to beat Lommel United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Lommel United 0-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.42 xG and Kortrijk 1.13 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Kortrijk attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 0/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 44% | Draw 26% | Kortrijk 30%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Kortrijk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, Kortrijk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Kortrijk's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Kortrijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.