Deinze 1-2 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deinze face Lommel United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League (Promotion Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Deinze — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Lommel United have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lommel United away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 1.70 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Deinze's games and 60% of Lommel United's (from Deinze's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Deinze, 4 for Lommel United and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 May 2024, ended Deinze 1–1 Lommel United — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 62% versus Lommel United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 62% | Lommel United 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.96 xG and Lommel United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.329 / defence 1.024 | Lommel United attack 1.092 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.378. Deinze carry an above-average attack rating of 1.329 — their 1.96 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Deinze's last 52 games and Lommel United's last 52.
Result probabilities: Deinze 48% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 31%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.10 | Draw 4.59 | Lommel United 3.27. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Deinze's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deinze 80% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Final | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 48% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Deinze 1.96 / Lommel United 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.329 / def 1.024 | Lommel United attack 1.092 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Deinze (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Lommel United xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Deinze 1 - 2 Lommel United.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (Promotion Play-offs - Final) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 48% chance of winning, Lommel United a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.33) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deinze's last 52 games and Lommel United's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
48%
2.10
22%
4.59
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.50
1.54
Lommel United xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
14%
7.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.80
4%
23.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Deinze and 1.54 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 33W 10D 22L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 32W 12D 21L from 65 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.68 PPG, Lommel United on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 32 home games (19W 6D 7L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 14W 7D 11L from their last 32 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
Deinze (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deinze
Current Season
Lommel United
Current Season
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 33W 10D 22L in their last 65 games (1.68 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 32W 12D 21L in their last 65 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.97 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Deinze or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lommel United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won Deinze 3-0 Lommel United.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2024: Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 75%, Lommel United at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Deinze and 69% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deinze vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deinze and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Deinze's games and 59% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deinze and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Deinze's matches and 69% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Deinze's recent matches and 75% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Deinze 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Deinze 1-2 at Dakota Arena, Promotion Play-offs - Final, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.96 xG and Lommel United 1.54 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.33 / defence 1.02 against Lommel United attack 1.09 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 48% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 31%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Lommel United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 62%, Lommel United 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.68 PPG, Lommel United 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.