Genk 1-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genk face Standard Liege.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Standard Liege travel to Cegeka Arena to take on Genk in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genk stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Genk have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Genk are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Standard Liege have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Standard Liege's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genk 1.20 PPG, Standard Liege 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Genk have won 0, Standard Liege 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Genk 0–1 Standard Liege — a Standard Liege win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Genk trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Standard Liege trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 63% versus Standard Liege 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 64% | Standard Liege 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.07 xG and Standard Liege 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.122 / defence 0.986 | Standard Liege attack 0.893 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.251. Data: built from Genk's last 62 games and Standard Liege's last 61.
Result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 21% | Standard Liege 20%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.68 | Draw 4.80 | Standard Liege 5.11. The model has a clear lean to Genk (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and Standard Liege's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 50% (last 10 home games) | Standard Liege 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 29 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 60% | Draw 21% | Standard Liege 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Genk 2.07 / Standard Liege 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.122 / def 0.986 | Standard Liege attack 0.893 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Genk (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Standard Liege xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege FAQs
What time does Genk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Genk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Genk 1 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Genk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Standard Liege part of?
Genk vs Standard Liege is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 29) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 60% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genk and Standard Liege will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Genk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genk's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Standard Liege's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Genk's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 62 games and Standard Liege's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.80
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Genk xG
Total xG
3.17
1.10
Standard Liege xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
13%
7.90
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
2%
40.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Genk and 1.10 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Standard Liege?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genk's recent record stands at 36W 18D 13L from 67 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 22W 19D 26L across 67 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Genk by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Standard Liege heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genk have managed 20W 9D 5L from their last 34 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 8W 10D 16L across their last 34 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genk are averaging 2.01 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.28 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
Genk (Home) vs Standard Liege (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Current Season
Standard Liege
Current Season
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 36W 18D 13L in their last 67 games (1.88 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 22W 19D 26L in their last 67 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Standard Liege away?
Genk's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.03 PPG; Standard Liege away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2026, when Standard Liege won Genk 0-3 Standard Liege.
Genk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
3
Draws
4
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Standard Liege?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Standard Liege last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Genk 2-1 Standard Liege.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Standard Liege?
Standard Liege have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 62%, Standard Liege 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Genk and 59% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Standard Liege in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Standard Liege Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Standard Liege matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Genk's games and 62% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genk and Standard Liege matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Genk's matches and 59% of Standard Liege's.
Do Genk and Standard Liege matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Genk's recent matches and 71% of Standard Liege's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genk edge out Standard Liege 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Standard Liege 1-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.07 xG and Standard Liege 1.10 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Standard Liege landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Standard Liege attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 60% | Draw 21% | Standard Liege 20%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 64%, Standard Liege 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.