Charleroi 0-0 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Cercle Brugge's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Cercle Brugge in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 3, Cercle Brugge 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Cercle Brugge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 56% versus Cercle Brugge 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 52% | Cercle Brugge 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.27 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.921 / defence 1.217 | Cercle Brugge attack 1.052 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.258. Data: 61 Charleroi games / 62 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 30% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 45%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Cercle Brugge 2.22. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 80% | Cercle Brugge 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 30% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Charleroi 1.27 / Cercle Brugge 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.921 / def 1.217 | Cercle Brugge attack 1.052 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Cercle Brugge xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 0 - 0 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 30% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Record (5 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 0 | Cercle Brugge 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.92) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.09
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.89
1.61
Cercle Brugge xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.57
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.61 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 21W 13D 27L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 28W 15D 18L from 61 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.25 PPG, Cercle Brugge on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 13W 7D 10L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.64 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Cercle Brugge
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 21W 13D 27L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 28W 15D 18L in their last 61 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.47 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Charleroi 3-4 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 67%, Cercle Brugge 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charleroi) and 53% (Cercle Brugge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Charleroi's games and 60% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Charleroi's matches and 53% of Cercle Brugge's.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charleroi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 29, as Charleroi and Cercle Brugge drew 0-0 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.27 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.61 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cercle Brugge landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 1.22 against Cercle Brugge attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 30% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 45%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 52%, Cercle Brugge 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.25 PPG, Cercle Brugge 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.