Charleroi 4-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Dender fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Conference League Play-off Group - 6 as Charleroi welcome Dender to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Dender — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dender's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Charleroi) versus 0.90 (Dender). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Charleroi, 2 for Dender and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Dender winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dender in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 48% versus Dender 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 46% | Dender 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.90 xG and Dender 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.898 / defence 0.918 | Dender attack 0.953 / defence 1.434. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.113. Dender bring a strong defensive rating of 1.434 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Charleroi games / 30 Dender games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 26% | Dender 17%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Dender 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Charleroi (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | Dender 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Dender | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Conference League Play-off Group - 6 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 57% | Draw 26% | Dender 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Charleroi 1.90 / Dender 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.898 / def 0.918 | Dender attack 0.953 / def 1.434 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dender xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Dender kick off?
Charleroi vs Dender kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Charleroi 4 - 1 Dender.
Where is Charleroi vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Dender part of?
Charleroi vs Dender is a Conference League Play-off Group - 6 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 57% chance of winning, Dender a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Charleroi and Dender will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
Record (3 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 0 | Dender 2W.
What form are Charleroi and Dender in?
Charleroi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Dender (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charleroi's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.88
17%
5.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.87
0.97
Dender xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
5.83
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
3%
38.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Charleroi and 0.97 for Dender, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Dender?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charleroi's recent record stands at 24W 14D 27L from 65 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 25W 19D 21L across 65 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.32 PPG, Dender on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 16W 6D 10L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dender's away record stands at 12W 8D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charleroi are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.51 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Dender
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Dender in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 24W 14D 27L in their last 65 games (1.32 PPG), while Dender have gone 25W 19D 21L in their last 65 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Dender away?
Charleroi's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.69 PPG; Dender away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Dender been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Dender in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Dender specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Charleroi
1
Draws
2
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Dender?
From 6 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, Dender have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Dender last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Dender 2-2 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Dender?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 47%, Dender 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charleroi) and 66% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Dender?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Charleroi's recent matches and 62% of Dender's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Dender usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charleroi's recent games and 66% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Dender tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Dender in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Charleroi run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dender.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Dender 4-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Conference League Play-off Group - 6, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.90 xG and Dender 0.97 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Dender attack 0.95 / defence 1.43, drawn from 60/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 57% | Draw 26% | Dender 17%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 46%, Dender 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.32 PPG, Dender 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm. Dender (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.