SK Beveren 2-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Lommel United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Lommel United at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SK Beveren have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lommel United's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SK Beveren at 1.30 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of SK Beveren's games and 60% of Lommel United's (from SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SK Beveren, 2 for Lommel United and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2024, ended SK Beveren 1–3 Lommel United — a Lommel United win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SK Beveren trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Lommel United trading profile (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 50% versus Lommel United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 60% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.59 xG and Lommel United 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.037 / defence 0.979 | Lommel United attack 1.043 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.437. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 30 games and Lommel United's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 41% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 35%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.46 | Draw 4.17 | Lommel United 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 70% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (SK Beveren 30 games, Lommel United 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 41% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG SK Beveren 1.59 / Lommel United 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.037 / def 0.979 | Lommel United attack 1.043 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Lommel United xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Lommel United kick off?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
SK Beveren 2 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is SK Beveren vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Lommel United part of?
SK Beveren vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 41% chance of winning, Lommel United a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SK Beveren and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (1.04) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 30 games and Lommel United's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.17
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.05
1.47
Lommel United xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.47 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 13W 6D 11L from 30 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Lommel United, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 9L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.50 PPG, Lommel United on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 7W 3D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lommel United's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across their last 15 away games, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SK Beveren are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.63 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 60%.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
Lommel United
Pre-Season
SK Beveren (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Pre-Season
Lommel United
Pre-Season
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Lommel United in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 13W 6D 11L in their last 30 games (1.50 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Lommel United away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.60 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lommel United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. They cover more than one competition — Challenger Pro League, Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
SK Beveren's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 4, Lommel United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: SK Beveren 1-3 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Lommel United?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SK Beveren at 60%, Lommel United at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SK Beveren and 73% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 73% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SK Beveren's matches and 73% of Lommel United's.
Do SK Beveren and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 73% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lommel United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 2-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.59 xG and Lommel United 1.47 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Lommel United attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 41% | Draw 24% | Lommel United 35%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 60%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lommel United's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.50 PPG, Lommel United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.