Lommel United 3-1 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 4W 3D 3L at Soeverein Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 1.70 PPG versus SK Beveren's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lommel United, 1 for SK Beveren and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 52% versus SK Beveren 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 61% | SK Beveren 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.79 xG and SK Beveren 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.153 / defence 0.759 | SK Beveren attack 0.921 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.370. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Lommel United games / 51 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | SK Beveren 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 50% | SK Beveren 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.79 / SK Beveren 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.153 / def 0.759 | SK Beveren attack 0.921 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
SK Beveren xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Lommel United 3 - 1 SK Beveren.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 57% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
Record (5 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 3 | SK Beveren 1W.
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in?
Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 1.15x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.33
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.75
0.96
SK Beveren xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
30.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Lommel United and 0.96 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 61 games, going 30W 10D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.85 PPG from 61 outings (33W 14D 14L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.64 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 16W 4D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.95 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 30W 10D 21L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 33W 14D 14L in their last 61 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or SK Beveren away?
Lommel United's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.73 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lommel United or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lommel United
4
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, SK Beveren have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 47%, SK Beveren 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lommel United) and 60% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SK Beveren in 37%; SK Beveren in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lommel United's recent matches and 47% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lommel United's matches and 60% of SK Beveren's.
Do Lommel United and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat SK Beveren 3-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.79 xG and SK Beveren 0.96 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.15 / defence 0.76 against SK Beveren attack 0.92 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 57% | Draw 23% | SK Beveren 20%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 61%, SK Beveren 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.64 PPG, SK Beveren 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.