Patro Eisden 3-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and SK Beveren meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 24 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
Patro Eisden's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SK Beveren have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SK Beveren are 0.70 PPG clear of Patro Eisden over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Patro Eisden, 1 for SK Beveren and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2025, ended Patro Eisden 1–2 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Patro Eisden half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SK Beveren half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 48% versus SK Beveren 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 52% | SK Beveren 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.22 xG and SK Beveren 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.125 / defence 0.888 | SK Beveren attack 1.186 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.287. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 59 games and SK Beveren's last 59.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 40%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.98 | Draw 3.78 | SK Beveren 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 60% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Thursday 24 April 2025 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.22 / SK Beveren 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.125 / def 0.888 | SK Beveren attack 1.186 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SK Beveren xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren kick off?
Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Thursday 24 April 2025 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Patro Eisden 3 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren part of?
Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 34% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Patro Eisden and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against SK Beveren's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.19x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 59 games and SK Beveren's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.78
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.58
1.35
SK Beveren xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.35 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Patro Eisden have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 27W 19D 13L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
SK Beveren's form line: 27W 15D 17L from 59 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Patro Eisden against 1.63 for SK Beveren. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Patro Eisden have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 13W 7D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; SK Beveren in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
Patro Eisden (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 27W 19D 13L in their last 59 games (1.69 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 27W 15D 17L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or SK Beveren away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.73 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SK Beveren have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
3
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 4, SK Beveren have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Patro Eisden 1-4 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and SK Beveren?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 57%, SK Beveren 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Patro Eisden) and 50% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 43%; SK Beveren in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 37% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Patro Eisden's matches and 50% of SK Beveren's.
Do Patro Eisden and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 70% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Patro Eisden defy the odds to beat SK Beveren 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat SK Beveren 3-2 at Patrostadion, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.22 xG and SK Beveren 1.35 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against SK Beveren attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 34% | Draw 26% | SK Beveren 40%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Patro Eisden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 52%, SK Beveren 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
SK Beveren's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG, SK Beveren 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Patro Eisden win broke the near-deadlock. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. SK Beveren (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.