RSC Anderlecht II 0-4 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SK Beveren (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as RSC Anderlecht II face SK Beveren.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Burg Van De Wielestadion plays host to RSC Anderlecht II versus SK Beveren in Challenger Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
RSC Anderlecht II have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — RSC Anderlecht II are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SK Beveren (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, SK Beveren are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to SK Beveren, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended RSC Anderlecht II 1–1 SK Beveren — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. SK Beveren have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.6 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
RSC Anderlecht II — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RSC Anderlecht II 69% versus SK Beveren 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RSC Anderlecht II 60% | SK Beveren 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.119 / defence 1.247 | SK Beveren attack 1.051 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.237. RSC Anderlecht II's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from RSC Anderlecht II's last 58 games and SK Beveren's last 58.
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 32% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 44%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 3.10 | Draw 4.14 | SK Beveren 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 home games and SK Beveren's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: RSC Anderlecht II 60% (last 10 home games) | SK Beveren 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Burg Van De Wielestadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 32% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.36 / SK Beveren 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.119 / def 1.247 | SK Beveren attack 1.051 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.62
SK Beveren xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren FAQs
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Burg Van De Wielestadion.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren?
RSC Anderlecht II 0 - 4 SK Beveren.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Burg Van De Wielestadion.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 32% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from RSC Anderlecht II's attack rating (1.12) and SK Beveren's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SK Beveren's attack (1.05x) against RSC Anderlecht II's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from RSC Anderlecht II's last 58 games and SK Beveren's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
32%
3.10
24%
4.14
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
2.99
1.62
SK Beveren xG
3.10
32%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
20%
5.06
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.62 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RSC Anderlecht II come into this having played 58 games, going 13W 18D 27L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.60 PPG from 58 outings (26W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
RSC Anderlecht II's home form reads 6W 9D 14L across their last 29 home games, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 29 away games (12W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.41 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
RSC Anderlecht II (Home) vs SK Beveren (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
RSC Anderlecht II
Current Season
SK Beveren
Current Season
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren Form FAQs
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 13W 18D 27L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 26W 15D 17L in their last 58 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.93 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.48 PPG.
Have RSC Anderlecht II or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
RSC Anderlecht II have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SK Beveren have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SK Beveren won RSC Anderlecht II 0-5 SK Beveren on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SK Beveren — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
RSC Anderlecht II
2
Draws
8
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, RSC Anderlecht II have won 0, SK Beveren have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: RSC Anderlecht II 0-5 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RSC Anderlecht II 72%, SK Beveren 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (RSC Anderlecht II) and 48% (SK Beveren). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 41%; SK Beveren in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ RSC Anderlecht II vs SK Beveren Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 38% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 48% of SK Beveren's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and SK Beveren matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of RSC Anderlecht II's recent matches and 69% of SK Beveren's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 0-4 hammering of RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat RSC Anderlecht II 0-4 at Burg Van De Wielestadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.36 xG and SK Beveren 1.62 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. RSC Anderlecht II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SK Beveren outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against SK Beveren attack 1.05 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 32% | Draw 24% | SK Beveren 44%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 60%, SK Beveren 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
SK Beveren's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.