K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates K. Lierse S.K. at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi meet at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
K. Lierse S.K.'s overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. K. Lierse S.K. have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 5W 2D 3L at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Olympic Charleroi have collected 0.00 PPG across 6 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 6L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 3.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Olympic Charleroi have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Olympic Charleroi's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
K. Lierse S.K. — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Olympic Charleroi — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (K. Lierse S.K. 17% | Olympic Charleroi 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (K. Lierse S.K. 17% | Olympic Charleroi 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 2.05 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.217 / defence 0.867 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.711 / defence 1.507. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.316. Olympic Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.507 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 K. Lierse S.K. games / 6 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 14%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Olympic Charleroi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 30% | Olympic Charleroi 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 48% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 2.05 / Olympic Charleroi 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.217 / def 0.867 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.711 / def 1.507 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Olympic Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 0 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 66% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-0D-6L in 6 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 3.33 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
K. Lierse S.K.'s attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Olympic Charleroi's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Olympic Charleroi's attack (0.71x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
66%
1.51
20%
4.98
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
2.86
0.81
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
13%
7.77
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
56.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 0.81 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 2W 1D 3L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympic Charleroi's form line: 0W 0D 6L from 6 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, K. Lierse S.K. are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Olympic Charleroi.
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.33 scored and 3.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
Olympic Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 0D 6L in their last 6 (0.00 PPG).
Have K. Lierse S.K. or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
K. Lierse S.K. have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
0
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 0-1 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Olympic Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 33% (Olympic Charleroi) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (K. Lierse S.K.) and 83% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: K. Lierse S.K. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; K. Lierse S.K. have failed to score in 67% of games; Olympic Charleroi in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Olympic Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent matches and 33% of Olympic Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of K. Lierse S.K.'s recent games and 83% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at K. Lierse S.K.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 8, as K. Lierse S.K. and Olympic Charleroi drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.05 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Olympic Charleroi landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.22 / defence 0.87 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.71 / defence 1.51, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 20% | Olympic Charleroi 14%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 17%, Olympic Charleroi 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. K. Lierse S.K. managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Olympic Charleroi conceded 0 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.