WSG Wattens 1-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — WSG Wattens lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with WSG Wattens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 47% versus SCR Altach 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 48% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.44 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.744 / defence 1.067 | SCR Altach attack 0.971 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. WSG Wattens's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 50% | SCR Altach 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG WSG Wattens 1.44 / SCR Altach 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.744 / def 1.067 | SCR Altach attack 0.971 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SCR Altach xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kick off?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
WSG Wattens 1 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach part of?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 39% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both WSG Wattens and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
Record (3 meetings): WSG Wattens 2W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.74) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.97x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.16
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.69
1.24
SCR Altach xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
7%
14.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.24 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 12W 13D 33L from 58 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 10W 21D 27L across 58 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.88 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 6W 9D 14L from 29 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 6W 8D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.88 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 13D 33L in their last 58 games (0.84 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 10W 21D 27L in their last 58 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or SCR Altach away?
WSG Wattens's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.93 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 45%, SCR Altach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (WSG Wattens) and 52% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 45% of games; SCR Altach in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 48% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 52% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and SCR Altach tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out SCR Altach 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.44 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 39% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 30%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 48%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.84 PPG, SCR Altach 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.