WSG Wattens 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Rapid Vienna (58%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as WSG Wattens face Rapid Vienna.

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Match Analysis

WSG Wattens host Rapid Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

At home, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Rapid Vienna away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rapid Vienna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Rapid Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for WSG Wattens.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended WSG Wattens 1–1 Rapid Vienna — a draw.

Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

WSG Wattens trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 55% versus Rapid Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | Rapid Vienna 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.139 / defence 1.381 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.193 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.198. Rapid Vienna bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling WSG Wattens's projected output down. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rapid Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 37 games and Rapid Vienna's last 37.

Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 20% | Draw 22% | Rapid Vienna 58%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 4.90 | Draw 4.63 | Rapid Vienna 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 80% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 40% (last 10 away games).

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