Lask Linz 1-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Raiffeisen Arena plays host to Lask Linz versus WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lask Linz at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Lask Linz. A 1.30 PPG lead over WSG Wattens (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Lask Linz's last 10 home games and WSG Wattens's last 10 away games) — Lask Linz have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, WSG Wattens in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lask Linz, 0 for WSG Wattens and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Lask Linz 1–1 WSG Wattens — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 61% versus WSG Wattens 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 44% | WSG Wattens 54%). Note also that WSG Wattens surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Lask Linz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.69 xG and WSG Wattens 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.127 / defence 0.652 | WSG Wattens attack 0.686 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.313. WSG Wattens's attack rating of 0.686 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.59. Lask Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.652), which is pulling WSG Wattens's projected output down. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 36 games and WSG Wattens's last 36.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 64% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 12%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 1.57 | Draw 4.11 | WSG Wattens 8.40. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (64%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 30% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 64% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Lask Linz 1.69 / WSG Wattens 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.127 / def 0.652 | WSG Wattens attack 0.686 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.59
WSG Wattens xG
37%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz 1 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 64% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Lask Linz and WSG Wattens will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.13) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — WSG Wattens's attack (0.69x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.59.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 36 games and WSG Wattens's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.11
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.28
0.59
WSG Wattens xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
56%
1.80
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
35%
2.82
2%
45.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.59 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz come into this having played 46 games, going 21W 16D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 1.00 PPG from 46 outings (12W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lask Linz's home form reads 14W 5D 4L across their last 23 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 23 away games (7W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.28 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs WSG Wattens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 21W 16D 9L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 10D 24L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.04 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Lask Linz
1
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 8, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Lask Linz 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and WSG Wattens?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 56%, WSG Wattens 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 56% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs WSG Wattens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 52% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lask Linz's recent games and 56% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and WSG Wattens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 70% of WSG Wattens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out WSG Wattens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat WSG Wattens 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.69 xG and WSG Wattens 0.59 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.13 / defence 0.65 against WSG Wattens attack 0.69 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 64% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 12%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 44%, WSG Wattens 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.