Rapid Vienna 4-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees SCR Altach travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SCR Altach — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rapid Vienna 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Rapid Vienna have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while SCR Altach have managed just 0 wins.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The historical record gives Rapid Vienna a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 67% versus SCR Altach 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 58% | SCR Altach 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.45 xG and SCR Altach 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.090 / defence 0.971 | SCR Altach attack 0.916 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.589. Data: 23 Rapid Vienna games / 23 SCR Altach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 37% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 70% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 37% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.45 / SCR Altach 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.090 / def 0.971 | SCR Altach attack 0.916 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.589 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.41
SCR Altach xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Rapid Vienna 4 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach part of?
Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
Record (3 meetings): Rapid Vienna 3W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
37%
2.72
28%
3.54
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.86
1.41
SCR Altach xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.18
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.41 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 7D 14L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.85 PPG from 33 outings (6W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 4D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (3W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.88 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 games (1.30 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 6W 10D 17L in their last 33 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or SCR Altach away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.56 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2025, when Rapid Vienna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 69%, SCR Altach 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rapid Vienna) and 62% (SCR Altach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Rapid Vienna's games and 50% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 62% of SCR Altach's.
Do Rapid Vienna and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat SCR Altach 4-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.45 xG and SCR Altach 1.41 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against SCR Altach attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 37% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 58%, SCR Altach 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.