Grazer AK 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Grazer AK welcome Rapid Vienna to Merkur-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK at Merkur-Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rapid Vienna are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Grazer AK, 1 for Rapid Vienna and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 60% versus Rapid Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 55% | Rapid Vienna 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.02 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.885 / defence 1.171 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.062 / defence 0.805. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.287. Data: 28 Grazer AK games / 28 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 24% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 51%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Rapid Vienna 1.96. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 50% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 24% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Grazer AK 1.02 / Rapid Vienna 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.885 / def 1.171 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.062 / def 0.805 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Grazer AK 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 24% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 1W.
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
24%
4.14
25%
4.00
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.60
Rapid Vienna xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
5%
20.49
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.60 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 5W 16D 17L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 17W 8D 13L from 38 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grazer AK have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 5W 16D 17L in their last 38 games (0.82 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 0.89 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Rapid Vienna won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 8-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 58%, Rapid Vienna at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Grazer AK) and 63% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grazer AK have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Grazer AK's games and 74% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Grazer AK's matches and 63% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.02 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.60 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 24% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 51%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, Rapid Vienna 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.