Austria Vienna 1-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 April 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 7W 2D 1L at Generali Arena — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Austria Vienna, 2 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–1 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 44% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 47% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.30 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / defence 0.822 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.825 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Red Bull Salzburg 5.00. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Austria Vienna 1.30 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.025 / def 0.822 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.825 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Vienna 1 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 45% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Vienna 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (0.82x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
45%
2.23
35%
2.87
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.81 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Austria Vienna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 29W 15D 13L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 32W 15D 10L from 57 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.95 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Vienna have posted 2.07 PPG from 28 outings (16W 10D 2L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 13W 9D 6L from 28 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.96 scored and 0.95 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's attacking output running into Austria Vienna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 32W 15D 10L in their last 57 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 2.07 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Red Bull Salzburg have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
8
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 4-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 43%, Red Bull Salzburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Austria Vienna) and 39% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 46%; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 39% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.30 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Red Bull Salzburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 47%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.79 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.