Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Lustenau face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz meet at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 2D 3L across 7 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.14 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 2W 1D 1L at Planet Pure Stadion — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.14 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sturm Graz are 0.76 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.90 vs 1.14). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Sturm Graz have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Austria Lustenau's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 71% and Sturm Graz 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 57% | Sturm Graz 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.22 xG and Sturm Graz 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.811 / defence 1.257 | Sturm Graz attack 1.041 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.199. Data: 7 Austria Lustenau games / 28 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 27% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 43%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 50% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 27% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.22 / Sturm Graz 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.811 / def 1.257 | Sturm Graz attack 1.041 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 27% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Record (5 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 4W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.04x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 7/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.44
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
Sturm Graz xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
6%
17.46
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.57 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 7 outings, Austria Lustenau have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 2W 2D 3L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Lustenau have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Austria Lustenau are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sturm Graz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.43 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Sturm Graz away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 2.00 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
1
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
From 5 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 33%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Austria Lustenau) and 33% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 33%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 33% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.