Austria Klagenfurt 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 44%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Klagenfurt at 28 Black Arena this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Austria Klagenfurt are significantly better at 28 Black Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Sturm Graz have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Austria Klagenfurt's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
It is worth noting that Sturm Graz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 53% versus Sturm Graz 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Sturm Graz 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 xG and Sturm Graz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.931 / defence 0.992 | Sturm Graz attack 0.907 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.047. Data: 24 Austria Klagenfurt games / 24 Sturm Graz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 26%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Sturm Graz 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Klagenfurt at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 / Sturm Graz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.931 / def 0.992 | Sturm Graz attack 0.907 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sturm Graz xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 44% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Record (8 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 1W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 6W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.93x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (0.91x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.32
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.26
0.94
Sturm Graz xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 0.94 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 9W 13D 12L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz's form line: 20W 10D 4L from 34 games, 2.06 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.18 PPG from 17 outings (4W 8D 5L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 9W 6D 2L from 17 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.71 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 9W 13D 12L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 20W 10D 4L in their last 34 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.18 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 59%, Sturm Graz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 59% (Sturm Graz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 65% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 59% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-2 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.32 xG and Sturm Graz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Sturm Graz attack 0.91 / defence 0.88, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 26%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 50%, Sturm Graz 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.