Sharjah FC 4-0 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Al-Jazira travel to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to take on Sharjah FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sharjah FC stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Jazira's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sharjah FC) versus 1.60 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al-Jazira and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 79% and Al-Jazira 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 61% | Al-Jazira 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.68 xG and Al-Jazira 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.966 / defence 0.841 | Al-Jazira attack 0.860 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.568. Data: 28 Sharjah FC games / 28 Al-Jazira games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 26%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 3.85. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Sharjah FC 1.68 / Al-Jazira 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.966 / def 0.841 | Al-Jazira attack 0.860 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Al-Jazira xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Sharjah FC 4 - 0 Al-Jazira.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 50% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (6 meetings): Sharjah FC 1W | Draws 3 | Al-Jazira 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.14
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.13
Al-Jazira xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.13 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC's recent record stands at 12W 12D 4L from 28 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Jazira, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 10L across 28 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.71 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sharjah FC have managed 5W 7D 2L from 14 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Jazira's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.86 scored and 1.75 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 75%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Jazira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 12W 12D 4L in their last 28 games (1.71 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.57 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Jazira have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2026, when Al-Jazira won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sharjah FC
4
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 2, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 5-0 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sharjah FC at 71%, Al-Jazira at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sharjah FC and 64% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Sharjah FC's games and 71% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sharjah FC's matches and 64% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Jazira 4-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.68 xG and Al-Jazira 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Jazira landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against Al-Jazira attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 50% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 26%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 61%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.71 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.