Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Baniyas SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Al Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 11 September 2025 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record at Al Rashid Stadium: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Rashid Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are significantly better at Al Rashid Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baniyas SC stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Baniyas SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 2 for Baniyas SC, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Baniyas SC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 57% versus Baniyas SC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% | Baniyas SC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 xG and Baniyas SC 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.143 / defence 0.813 | Baniyas SC attack 0.854 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.277. Data: 28 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 28 Baniyas SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 19%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Baniyas SC 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 30% | Baniyas SC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 Sep 2025, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 / Baniyas SC 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.143 / def 0.813 | Baniyas SC attack 0.854 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Baniyas SC xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 17:15 on Thursday 11 September 2025 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 58% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Record (8 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 6W | Draws 0 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Baniyas SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (1.14) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Baniyas SC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
58%
1.74
23%
4.26
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.63
0.89
Baniyas SC xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
3%
30.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.89 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 20W 7D 1L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baniyas SC's form line: 7W 6D 15L from 28 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Baniyas SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baniyas SC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 2.71 PPG from 14 outings (12W 2D 0L).
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 4W 1D 9L from 14 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.07 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Baniyas SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 20W 7D 1L in their last 28 games (2.39 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Baniyas SC away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.71 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Baniyas SC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
2
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Baniyas SC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Baniyas SC 2-2 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 43%, Baniyas SC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 50% (Baniyas SC).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Baniyas SC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent matches and 43% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 50% of Baniyas SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Baniyas SC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Baniyas SC 1-0 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.74 xG and Baniyas SC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against Baniyas SC attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 58% | Draw 23% | Baniyas SC 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%, Baniyas SC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.