Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Baniyas SC.

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Fixture Analysis

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Baniyas SC to Rashid Stadium in Pro League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 28 February 2025 at 16:15 UK time.

Form Guide

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Baniyas SC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

On current form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Baniyas SC and 0 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5–1 Baniyas SC — a Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Baniyas SC trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 67% and Baniyas SC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 81% | Baniyas SC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.05 xG and Baniyas SC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.220 / defence 0.730 | Baniyas SC attack 0.945 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.373. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a tight defence (rating 0.730), which is pulling Baniyas SC's projected output down. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 42 games and Baniyas SC's last 43.

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% | Draw 21% | Baniyas SC 17%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 | Draw 4.87 | Baniyas SC 6.03. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Baniyas SC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% (last 10 home games) | Baniyas SC 50% (last 10 away games).

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