Al-Jazira 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Al-Jazira welcome Dibba Al Hisn to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 13:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's home record at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al Hisn have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dibba Al Hisn have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 0 for Dibba Al Hisn and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 6–1 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Dibba Al Hisn in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 59% and Dibba Al Hisn 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 71% | Dibba Al Hisn 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.82 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.929 / defence 0.888 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.843 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.408. Dibba Al Hisn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Al-Jazira games / 17 Dibba Al Hisn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Dibba Al Hisn 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Dibba Al Hisn 78% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Jazira 1.82 / Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.929 / def 0.888 | Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.843 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dibba Al Hisn xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn kicked off at 13:35 on Friday 28 February 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Al-Jazira 1 - 0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn part of?
Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 55% chance of winning, Dibba Al Hisn a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Jazira 1W | Draws 0 | Dibba Al Hisn 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dibba Al Hisn's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al Hisn's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
55%
1.81
23%
4.36
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.87
1.05
Dibba Al Hisn xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
4%
28.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.05 for Dibba Al Hisn, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 3D 5L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al Hisn sit at 0.59 PPG from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.17 PPG clear of Dibba Al Hisn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Jazira's home form reads 5W 1D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al Hisn have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al Hisn are on 1.06 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn in 71%.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Dibba Al Hisn have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Dibba Al Hisn away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.00 PPG; Dibba Al Hisn away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al-Jazira
0
Draws
0
Dibba Al Hisn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 2, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al-Jazira 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 50%, Dibba Al Hisn at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Jazira and 62% for Dibba Al Hisn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Dibba Al Hisn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Dibba Al Hisn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Jazira's games and 88% of Dibba Al Hisn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Dibba Al Hisn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Jazira's matches and 62% of Dibba Al Hisn's.
Do Al-Jazira and Dibba Al Hisn tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dibba Al Hisn in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Dibba Al Hisn 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-0 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.82 xG and Dibba Al Hisn 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Dibba Al Hisn landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.84 / defence 1.22, drawn from 42/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 55% | Draw 23% | Dibba Al Hisn 22%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 71%, Dibba Al Hisn 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.