Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Al Bataeh.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh meet at Al Rashid Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Al Rashid Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Bataeh (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Bataeh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Bataeh away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Al Bataeh's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Bataeh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 7 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2026, ended 4–0 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53% versus Al Bataeh 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% | Al Bataeh 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.496 / defence 0.940 | Al Bataeh attack 0.841 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.444. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry an above-average attack strength of 1.496 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 51 Al Bataeh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 19%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Bataeh 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shabab Al Ahli Dubai as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Al Bataeh 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Al Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 / Al Bataeh 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.496 / def 0.940 | Al Bataeh attack 0.841 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Bataeh xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Al Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1 - 1 Al Bataeh.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh being played?
The match is being played at Al Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 59% chance of winning, Al Bataeh a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
Record (7 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 7W | Draws 0 | Al Bataeh 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Al Bataeh (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.50x league average) is weighed against Al Bataeh's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Al Bataeh's attack (0.84x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.36
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
3.26
1.14
Al Bataeh xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
12%
8.31
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
2%
44.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.14 for Al Bataeh, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come into this having played 51 games, going 36W 12D 3L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Bataeh sit at 0.92 PPG from 51 outings (11W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Bataeh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home form reads 20W 4D 1L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Bataeh have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (7W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Al Bataeh are on 1.04 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Al Bataeh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 36W 12D 3L in their last 51 games (2.35 PPG), while Al Bataeh have gone 11W 14D 26L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Bataeh away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.56 PPG; Al Bataeh away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Al Bataeh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al Bataeh in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-6 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Bataeh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
Draws
0
Al Bataeh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
From 8 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 7, Al Bataeh have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 52%, Al Bataeh 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) and 48% (Al Bataeh).
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Bataeh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Bataeh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 64% of Al Bataeh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Bataeh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent games and 48% of Al Bataeh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Bataeh in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Bataeh finished level at 1-1 at Al Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2.12 xG and Al Bataeh 1.14 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.50 / defence 0.94 against Al Bataeh attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 59% | Draw 23% | Al Bataeh 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61%, Al Bataeh 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Bataeh's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.