Khorfakkan 1-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Sharjah FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 15:10 UTC.
Form
Khorfakkan (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 4W 1D 5L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.20 for Sharjah FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sharjah FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Sharjah FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Khorfakkan's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Sharjah FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sharjah FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Khorfakkan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 59% versus Sharjah FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 67% | Sharjah FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.35 xG and Sharjah FC 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.854 / defence 1.050 | Sharjah FC attack 0.980 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.705. Data: 49 Khorfakkan games / 49 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Sharjah FC 2.13. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Sharjah FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 15:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Khorfakkan 1.35 / Sharjah FC 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.854 / def 1.050 | Sharjah FC attack 0.980 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.705 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Sharjah FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:10 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Khorfakkan 1 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 30% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
Record (5 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 0 | Sharjah FC 4W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sharjah FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (0.98x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
30%
3.37
23%
4.29
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.11
1.75
Sharjah FC xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
5%
19.48
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.75 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 12W 11D 26L from 49 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sharjah FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 11L across 49 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sharjah FC by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 10W 3D 11L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sharjah FC's away record stands at 12W 7D 5L across 24 trips, a 1.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 12W 11D 26L in their last 49 games (0.96 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 20W 18D 11L in their last 49 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.38 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 3-0 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sharjah FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
1
Draws
8
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Sharjah FC have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Sharjah FC 3-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 54%, Sharjah FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Khorfakkan) and 42% (Sharjah FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC in 33%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Sharjah FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Sharjah FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Khorfakkan's matches and 42% of Sharjah FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Khorfakkan 1-3 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.35 xG and Sharjah FC 1.75 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Sharjah FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 30% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 47%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 67%, Sharjah FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.