Khorfakkan 3-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Al Wahda FC travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 December 2023, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Wahda FC — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 0, Al Wahda FC 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 60% versus Al Wahda FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 65% | Al Wahda FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.43 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.152 / defence 1.006 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.890 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.733. Al Wahda FC's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Khorfakkan games / 37 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 33% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Al Wahda FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 70% | Al Wahda FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 33% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Khorfakkan 1.43 / Al Wahda FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.152 / def 1.006 | Al Wahda FC attack 0.890 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.733 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al Wahda FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 December 2023 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Khorfakkan 3 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 33% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Record (4 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 2 | Al Wahda FC 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Khorfakkan's attack rating (1.15) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.42
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.98
1.55
Al Wahda FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
9%
10.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.55 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 37 games, going 9W 8D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Wahda FC sit at 1.95 PPG from 37 outings (21W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 8W 3D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Wahda FC have taken 2.21 points per game from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 9W 8D 20L in their last 37 games (0.95 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.42 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
5
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 58%, Al Wahda FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Khorfakkan) and 47% (Al Wahda FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 47%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Khorfakkan's games and 53% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Khorfakkan's matches and 47% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khorfakkan defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Wahda FC 3-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.43 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Al Wahda FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.74, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 33% | Draw 29% | Al Wahda FC 38%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 65%, Al Wahda FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.