Baniyas SC 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Baniyas SC welcome Al-Ittihad Kalba to Baniyas Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Baniyas SC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Baniyas SC have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Baniyas SC) versus 1.20 (Al-Ittihad Kalba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baniyas SC, 2 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad Kalba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baniyas SC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baniyas SC 60% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baniyas SC 65% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baniyas SC 1.57 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baniyas SC attack 0.877 / defence 1.038 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.112 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.741. Data: 37 Baniyas SC games / 37 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baniyas SC 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%. Fair-value odds: Baniyas SC 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.17. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Baniyas SC 70% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baniyas SC 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Baniyas SC 1.57 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Baniyas SC attack 0.877 / def 1.038 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.112 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.741 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC 2 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Baniyas SC a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (4 meetings): Baniyas SC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2W.
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baniyas SC's attack rating (0.88) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Baniyas SC's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
29%
3.47
25%
4.04
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Baniyas SC xG
Total xG
3.58
2.01
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
13%
7.46
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
4%
25.91
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Baniyas SC and 2.01 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baniyas SC's recent record stands at 10W 7D 20L from 37 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 16L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baniyas SC on 1.00 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Baniyas SC have managed 4W 4D 10L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Baniyas SC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.38 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baniyas SC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Baniyas SC have gone 10W 7D 20L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baniyas SC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baniyas SC at home: 0.89 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baniyas SC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Baniyas SC
3
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Baniyas SC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Baniyas SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baniyas SC 61%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Baniyas SC and 67% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Baniyas SC have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baniyas SC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baniyas SC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Baniyas SC's games and 56% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baniyas SC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Baniyas SC's matches and 67% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Baniyas SC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Baniyas SC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Baniyas SC defy the odds to beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baniyas SC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baniyas SC 1.57 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.01 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baniyas SC attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.11 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baniyas SC 29% | Draw 25% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 46%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Baniyas SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baniyas SC 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baniyas SC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baniyas SC 1.00 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baniyas SC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.