Khorfakkan 3-1 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Al Nasr travel to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to take on Khorfakkan. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023, 12:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 3W 2D 5L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Nasr have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khorfakkan 0.80 PPG, Al Nasr 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 1, Al Nasr 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Nasr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Nasr in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 56% versus Al Nasr 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 62% | Al Nasr 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Al Nasr 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.021 / defence 1.024 | Al Nasr attack 0.928 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.825. Data: 34 Khorfakkan games / 35 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 38%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Al Nasr 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Nasr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Al Nasr 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Khorfakkan 1.70 / Al Nasr 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.021 / def 1.024 | Al Nasr attack 0.928 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.825 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Nasr xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr kicked off at 12:45 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Khorfakkan 3 - 1 Al Nasr.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 37% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Record (4 meetings): Khorfakkan 1W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 2W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
37%
2.73
25%
3.94
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.43
1.73
Al Nasr xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.73 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan's recent record stands at 8W 8D 18L from 34 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 17L across 34 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 0.94 PPG, Al Nasr on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khorfakkan have managed 7W 2D 7L from 16 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Khorfakkan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Nasr's away record stands at 2W 5D 9L across 16 trips, a 0.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khorfakkan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.09 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al Nasr away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.44 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.69 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2022, when Khorfakkan won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
4
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al Nasr have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Al Nasr 2-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 56%, Al Nasr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Khorfakkan and 56% for Al Nasr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 50% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Khorfakkan's matches and 56% of Al Nasr's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Nasr.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Nasr 3-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.70 xG and Al Nasr 1.73 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Khorfakkan beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Al Nasr attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 25% | Al Nasr 38%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 62%, Al Nasr 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Nasr's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 0.94 PPG, Al Nasr 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Al Nasr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.