Khorfakkan vs Ajman – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajman (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khorfakkan face Ajman.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Khorfakkan welcome Ajman to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 December 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajman — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajman are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ajman, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Khorfakkan.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–5 with Ajman winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Ajman have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ajman in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 61% versus Ajman 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 58% | Ajman 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.39 xG and Ajman 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / defence 1.010 | Ajman attack 1.011 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.616. Data: 31 Khorfakkan games / 31 Ajman games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 32% | Draw 24% | Ajman 44%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Ajman 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajman at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajman offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 60% | Ajman 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 32% | Draw 24% | Ajman 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Khorfakkan 1.39 / Ajman 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.877 / def 1.010 | Ajman attack 1.011 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.616 • Poisson stance: Ajman (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Ajman xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Ajman kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman is scheduled to kick off at 12:45 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Ajman part of?
Khorfakkan vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 32% chance of winning, Ajman a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajman the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Khorfakkan and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Record (10 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 3 | Ajman 5W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Ajman (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 0.88x the league average against Ajman's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajman's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajman Win
32%
3.08
24%
4.19
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.04
1.65
Ajman xG
3.08
32%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.65 for Ajman, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 7W 10D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman's form line: 12W 5D 14L from 31 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khorfakkan on 1.00 PPG, Ajman on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.00 PPG from 16 outings (3W 7D 6L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 8W 1D 7L from 16 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajman come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.23 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Ajman in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 7W 10D 14L in their last 31 games (1.00 PPG), while Ajman have gone 12W 5D 14L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Ajman away?
Ajman's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.00 PPG; Ajman away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2025, when Ajman won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Ajman specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
5
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 2, Ajman have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Khorfakkan 2-5 Ajman.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Ajman?
Ajman have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajman see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 69%, Ajman 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Khorfakkan) and 44% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 31%; Ajman in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 31% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 44% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.