Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Dibba Al-Fujairah welcome Khorfakkan to Dibba Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dibba Al-Fujairah — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 8L across 9 games at Dibba Stadium this term (0.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.11 lags behind their overall 0.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dibba Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Dibba Al-Fujairah) versus 1.00 (Khorfakkan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Khorfakkan and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Dibba Al-Fujairah in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dibba Al-Fujairah 40% versus Khorfakkan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al-Fujairah 45% | Khorfakkan 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.14 xG and Khorfakkan 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.670 / defence 1.158 | Khorfakkan attack 0.802 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.454. Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 46 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 32% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Khorfakkan 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dibba Al-Fujairah 44% | Khorfakkan 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 32% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.14 / Khorfakkan 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.670 / def 1.158 | Khorfakkan attack 0.802 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.454 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Khorfakkan xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 32% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan in?
Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
32%
3.16
27%
3.72
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
2.49
1.35
Khorfakkan xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.35 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dibba Al-Fujairah come into this having played 20 games, going 2W 2D 16L for 0.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Dibba Al-Fujairah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dibba Al-Fujairah's home form reads 0W 1D 8L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 0.44 points per game from 9 outings (0W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khorfakkan's season.
The Goals Picture
Dibba Al-Fujairah are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 2W 2D 16L in their last 20 games (0.40 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home or Khorfakkan away?
Khorfakkan's away record (0.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al-Fujairah at home: 0.11 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 2, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Khorfakkan 0-0 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dibba Al-Fujairah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al-Fujairah 44%, Khorfakkan 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dibba Al-Fujairah) and 67% (Khorfakkan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dibba Al-Fujairah have failed to score in 56% of games; Khorfakkan in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al-Fujairah play Khorfakkan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's recent matches and 56% of Khorfakkan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's matches and 67% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Dibba Al-Fujairah and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Dibba Al-Fujairah have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dibba Al-Fujairah defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al-Fujairah beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.14 xG and Khorfakkan 1.35 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Khorfakkan attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 20/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 32% | Draw 27% | Khorfakkan 42%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Dibba Al-Fujairah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al-Fujairah 45%, Khorfakkan 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Dibba Al-Fujairah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.