Al-Wasl FC 1-0 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Wasl FC welcome Al-Jazira to Zabeel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 13:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Wasl FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Zabeel Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Wasl FC are significantly better at Zabeel Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Al-Wasl FC) versus 1.80 (Al-Jazira). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Wasl FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 3 for Al-Jazira and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2025, ended 5–0 with Al-Wasl FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 63% versus Al-Jazira 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Wasl FC 63% | Al-Jazira 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.12 xG and Al-Jazira 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.991 / defence 0.703 | Al-Jazira attack 1.023 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.394. Al-Wasl FC's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Al-Wasl FC games / 38 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 38% | Draw 30% | Al-Jazira 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Jazira 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Wasl FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Al-Wasl FC 60% | Al-Jazira 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 13:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 38% | Draw 30% | Al-Jazira 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.12 / Al-Jazira 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.991 / def 0.703 | Al-Jazira attack 1.023 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al-Jazira xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 13:05 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 0 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 38% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (0.99) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Al-Wasl FC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.37
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.12
1.00
Al-Jazira xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.00 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 11D 8L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.53 PPG from 38 outings (16W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Wasl FC on 1.79 PPG, Al-Jazira on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 12W 5D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.47 points per game from 19 outings (7W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Wasl FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Wasl FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 19W 11D 8L in their last 38 games (1.79 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Wasl FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Wasl FC's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Wasl FC
2
Draws
3
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, Al-Jazira have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 58%, Al-Jazira 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al-Wasl FC) and 53% (Al-Jazira).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Wasl FC's games and 63% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 53% of Al-Jazira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Wasl FC edge out Al-Jazira 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Al-Jazira 1-0 at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.12 xG and Al-Jazira 1.00 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Jazira landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.70 against Al-Jazira attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 38% | Draw 30% | Al-Jazira 32%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 63%, Al-Jazira 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.79 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.