Al Wahda FC 4-2 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba meet at Baniyas Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Al Wahda FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Baniyas Stadium, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 3D 0L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Urooba have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Urooba away from home this season: 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Wahda FC. A 1.20 PPG lead over Al Urooba (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Al Urooba and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2021, ended 4–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wahda FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Al Urooba — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 62% and Al Urooba 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 54% | Al Urooba 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.05 xG and Al Urooba 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.038 / defence 1.009 | Al Urooba attack 0.593 / defence 1.575. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.245. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.575 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Al Wahda FC games / 13 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 66% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 11%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Al Urooba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 60% | Al Urooba 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Baniyas Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 66% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.05 / Al Urooba 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.038 / def 1.009 | Al Urooba attack 0.593 / def 1.575 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Al Urooba xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Baniyas Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Al Wahda FC 4 - 2 Al Urooba.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Baniyas Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 66% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 1W | Draws 0 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Al Urooba's defensive record (1.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — Al Urooba's attack (0.59x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.37
11%
9.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.79
0.74
Al Urooba xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
9.12
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
13%
7.74
Win to Nil
31%
3.18
1%
70.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.74 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 6D 1L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Urooba sit at 0.62 PPG from 13 outings (1W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.23 PPG clear of Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Wahda FC's home form reads 2W 3D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Urooba have taken 0.20 points per game from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Urooba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 1.08 scored and 2.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Urooba in 62%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 6W 6D 1L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al Urooba away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.80 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-4 on 19 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Urooba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Wahda FC
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Urooba 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 60%, Al Urooba 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al Wahda FC) and 40% (Al Urooba).
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Urooba in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 40% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 40% of Al Urooba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al Urooba 4-2 at Baniyas Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.05 xG and Al Urooba 0.74 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Urooba outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Al Urooba attack 0.59 / defence 1.57, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 66% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 11%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 54%, Al Urooba 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Urooba's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.62. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Urooba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.