Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Nahyan Stadium.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The historical record gives Al Wahda FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 54% versus Al-Jazira 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 56% | Al-Jazira 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.39 xG and Al-Jazira 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.197 / defence 0.793 | Al-Jazira attack 0.854 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.453. Al Wahda FC's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al Wahda FC games / 42 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Jazira 3.70. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al-Jazira 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.39 / Al-Jazira 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.197 / def 0.793 | Al-Jazira attack 0.854 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al-Jazira xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 46% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (9 meetings): Al Wahda FC 6W | Draws 3 | Al-Jazira 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.85x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.69
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
Al-Jazira xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
7%
15.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.98 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 21W 15D 5L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 17W 11D 13L from 41 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.51 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (11W 8D 1L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 7W 8D 5L from 20 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.61 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 21W 15D 5L in their last 41 games (1.90 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.05 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Al Wahda FC, 65% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Wahda FC and 50% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Wahda FC's games and 65% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Jazira defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al Wahda FC 1-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.39 xG and Al-Jazira 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.79 against Al-Jazira attack 0.85 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Jazira 27%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Jazira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 56%, Al-Jazira 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.90 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.