Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38%, yet in-form Al-Jazira provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Ittihad Kalba travel to Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium to take on Al-Jazira. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 April 2025, 14:55 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Jazira's home record at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad Kalba stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Jazira, 1 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Jazira trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 67% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 65% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 0.819 / defence 1.178 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.855 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.324. Data: 46 Al-Jazira games / 47 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Jazira (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 40% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Jazira 1.27 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 0.819 / def 1.178 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.855 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 14:55 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 35% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Jazira 3W | Draws 3 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Jazira's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.79
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.60
1.33
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.33 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Jazira's recent record stands at 18W 12D 16L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 20L across 46 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Jazira have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record stands at 5W 7D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.39 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Sep 2023, when Al-Jazira won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Ittihad Kalba specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
4
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Jazira have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 64%, Al-Ittihad Kalba at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Al-Jazira and 68% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al-Jazira's games and 73% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Al-Jazira's matches and 68% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad Kalba edge out Al-Jazira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad Kalba beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.27 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.33 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 35% | Draw 26% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 65%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.43 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ittihad Kalba win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.