Al-Jazira 1-3 Al Ain – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al Ain fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Jazira and Al Ain meet at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Jazira have posted 7W 2D 1L at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Ain have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Ain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Ain's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Ain in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Jazira, 3 for Al Ain and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al Ain half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 74% and Al Ain 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 68% | Al Ain 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.85 xG and Al Ain 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.290 / defence 0.829 | Al Ain attack 1.373 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.868 / away 1.522. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Ain have an above-average attack strength of 1.373 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Al-Jazira games / 34 Al Ain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | Al Ain 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.85 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 60% | Al Ain 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Ain | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 79% | xG Al-Jazira 2.85 / Al Ain 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.290 / def 0.829 | Al Ain attack 1.373 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.868 / away 1.522 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.85
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Ain xG
79%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Al-Jazira 1 - 3 Al Ain.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Ain is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 60% chance of winning, Al Ain a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Ain will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Ain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 2W | Draws 1 | Al Ain 3W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Ain in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Al Ain (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.29x the league average against Al Ain's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Ain's attack (1.37x) against Al-Jazira's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 7.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (6.8%), 2-2 (6.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.16
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
2 – 2
6.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.85
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
4.58
1.73
Al Ain xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
48%
Over 4.5
2.08
52%
Under 4.5
1.92
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
6%
17.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.45
1%
82.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.2%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Ain expected to score?
The model projects 2.85 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.73 for Al Ain, a combined total of 4.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Ain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 13W 10D 11L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Ain's form line: 18W 6D 10L from 34 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Al Ain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Al-Jazira against 1.76 for Al Ain. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Ain have gone 10W 3D 3L from 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Jazira are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al Ain are on 2.32 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Al Ain in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Ain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Ain in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 13W 10D 11L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Al Ain have gone 18W 6D 10L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Ain away?
Al Ain's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.94 PPG; Al Ain away: 2.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Ain won 5-0 on 11 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Ain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
5
Al Ain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 2, Al Ain have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Ain last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Al-Jazira 0-1 Al Ain.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Ain?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Al-Jazira, 56% for Al Ain — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al-Jazira and 69% for Al Ain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Ain in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Ain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Ain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al-Jazira's games and 56% of Al Ain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Ain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al-Jazira's matches and 69% of Al Ain's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Ain tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Al Ain in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Ain cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Al-Jazira 1-3 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.85 xG and Al Ain 1.73 xG, a combined 4.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Al Ain outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.29 / defence 0.83 against Al Ain attack 1.37 / defence 1.18, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 60% | Draw 19% | Al Ain 21%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Al Ain win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 68%, Al Ain 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Al Ain's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.44 PPG, Al Ain 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Ain win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.