Al Bataeh 1-3 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Bataeh at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Khorfakkan make the trip to Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium to face Al Bataeh in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 November 2024 at 12:40 UTC.
Current Form
Al Bataeh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Bataeh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Bataeh's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium this season.
Khorfakkan have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.90 for Khorfakkan. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Bataeh register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Khorfakkan in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al Bataeh 2W, Khorfakkan 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Al Bataeh winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Bataeh — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Bataeh 73% and Khorfakkan 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Bataeh 73% | Khorfakkan 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Bataeh 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Bataeh attack 1.033 / defence 1.249 | Khorfakkan attack 1.148 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.851 / away 1.690. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Al Bataeh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Al Bataeh games / 33 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Bataeh 2.44 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 20% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 87% | BTTS probability 84% | Total xG 4.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 87% — a total xG of 4.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 84% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 2.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Bataeh as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 87% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 84% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Bataeh 90% | Khorfakkan 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Nov 2024, 12:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 87% | BTTS 84% | xG Al Bataeh 2.49 / Khorfakkan 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Al Bataeh attack 1.033 / def 1.249 | Khorfakkan attack 1.148 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.851 / away 1.690 • Poisson stance: Al Bataeh (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al Bataeh xG
Expected Goals
2.42
Khorfakkan xG
84%
BTTS
96%
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 12:40 on Thursday 21 November 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh 1 - 3 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Bataeh a 41% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 39% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Bataeh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 84% probability that both Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 87%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Record (4 meetings): Al Bataeh 2W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 1W.
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in?
Al Bataeh (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Bataeh's attack at 1.03x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (1.15x) against Al Bataeh's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.42.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-2 (5.6%), 2-1 (5.5%). Even combined, the top three scorelines only cover 18% of the total probability — the model sees a wide spread of plausible outcomes rather than one clear shape to the game.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Bataeh Win
41%
2.42
20%
5.03
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Most likely
3 – 2
5.6%
Home win
2 – 1
5.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al Bataeh xG
Total xG
4.92
2.42
Khorfakkan xG
2.42
41%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
54%
Over 4.5
1.85
46%
Under 4.5
2.17
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
84%
BTTS Yes
1.19
16%
BTTS No
6.37
Clean Sheet
9%
11.28
8%
12.10
Win to Nil
4%
27.32
3%
31.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.7%.
How many goals are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al Bataeh and 2.42 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Bataeh come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 8D 14L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Bataeh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khorfakkan sit at 0.94 PPG from 33 outings (8W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Al Bataeh against 0.94 for Khorfakkan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Bataeh's home form reads 4W 5D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Khorfakkan have taken 0.81 points per game from 16 outings (3W 4D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Bataeh are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.39 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Bataeh have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Bataeh
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Bataeh have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 7D 18L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Bataeh at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Bataeh's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Bataeh at home: 1.06 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Khorfakkan won 3-0 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Bataeh have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al Bataeh
3
Draws
2
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Bataeh have won 3, Khorfakkan have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Bataeh.
Who has won more matches between Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan?
Al Bataeh have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Bataeh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 81% for Al Bataeh, 81% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al Bataeh and 75% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Bataeh home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Bataeh play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Al Bataeh's games and 81% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Bataeh vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Bataeh's matches and 75% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Bataeh and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Bataeh have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Bataeh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al Bataeh 1-3 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Bataeh 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 2.42 xG, a combined 4.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Bataeh fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Bataeh attack 1.03 / defence 1.25 against Khorfakkan attack 1.15 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Bataeh 41% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 39%, with Al Bataeh to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Khorfakkan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 84% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Bataeh 73%, Khorfakkan 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Bataeh's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Bataeh 1.24 PPG, Khorfakkan 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khorfakkan win broke the near-deadlock. Al Bataeh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.