Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajman face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Ajman Stadium to take on Ajman. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 28 January 2026, 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajman, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajman's home record at Ajman Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Ajman's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who boast 8 victories compared to 0 for Ajman.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Ajman trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajman 49% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajman 51% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajman 0.59 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajman attack 0.762 / defence 0.986 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.206 / defence 0.574. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.336. Ajman's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence strength of 0.574 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Ajman games / 39 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajman 14% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%. Fair-value odds: Ajman 7.14 | Draw 4.00 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Ajman 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ajman Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jan 2026, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajman 14% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG Ajman 0.59 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Ajman attack 0.762 / def 0.986 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.206 / def 0.574 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Ajman xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
36%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 13:15 on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at Ajman Stadium.
What was the final score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Ajman 0 - 1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Ajman Stadium.
What competition is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Ajman a 14% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Record (9 meetings): Ajman 0W | Draws 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 8W.
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Ajman (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajman's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.57x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.59. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Ajman's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.3%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
14%
7.36
25%
4.05
62%
1.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.3%
Away win
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Ajman xG
Total xG
2.18
1.59
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
7.36
14%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.62
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
55%
1.81
Win to Nil
3%
36.07
34%
2.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 18.0 | 14.3 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Ajman and 1.59 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajman's recent record stands at 13W 6D 20L from 39 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ajman is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 29W 8D 2L across 39 games — 2.44 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ajman heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ajman have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record stands at 12W 6D 1L across 19 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajman are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 2.15 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajman
Blended
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Ajman have gone 13W 6D 20L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 29W 8D 2L in their last 39 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajman at home or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajman at home: 1.42 PPG; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Ajman or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajman have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2023, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajman's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Ajman
1
Draws
9
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Ajman have won 0, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Ajman 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajman 63%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Ajman) and 58% (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 47%; Ajman have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajman home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajman play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ajman's games and 53% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajman vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ajman's matches and 58% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's.
Do Ajman and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Ajman have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai edge out Ajman 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Ajman 0-1 at Ajman Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajman 0.59 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajman attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.21 / defence 0.57, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajman 14% | Draw 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 62%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajman 51%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajman's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.