Vorskla Poltava 0-0 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 49%, yet in-form Karpaty provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho plays host to Vorskla Poltava versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Thursday 6 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vorskla Poltava have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Karpaty (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Karpaty, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karpaty have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Karpaty are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vorskla Poltava lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Karpaty half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Vorskla Poltava 37% | Karpaty 32%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 37% | Karpaty 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG and Karpaty 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.840 / defence 1.124 | Karpaty attack 0.733 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 0.915. Karpaty bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Vorskla Poltava games / 19 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 49% | Draw 29% | Karpaty 22%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Karpaty 4.55. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Karpaty (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Karpaty 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 49% | Draw 29% | Karpaty 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.27 / Karpaty 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.840 / def 1.124 | Karpaty attack 0.733 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.209 / away 0.915 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Karpaty xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 6 March 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty?
Vorskla Poltava 0 - 0 Karpaty.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 49% chance of winning, Karpaty a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 0W | Draws 1 | Karpaty 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Karpaty (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.73x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.42
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.02
0.75
Karpaty xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.7 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.75 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vorskla Poltava's recent record stands at 4W 5D 10L from 19 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 8L across 19 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Karpaty is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karpaty by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vorskla Poltava have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karpaty's away record stands at 2W 0D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karpaty's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Karpaty in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Karpaty
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 5D 10L in their last 19 games (0.89 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Karpaty away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.00 PPG; Karpaty away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Karpaty in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
0
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, Karpaty have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 0-0 Karpaty.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Vorskla Poltava) and 38% (Karpaty) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Vorskla Poltava) and 50% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 62% of games; Karpaty in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 38% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 50% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vorskla Poltava's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 20, as Vorskla Poltava and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.27 xG and Karpaty 0.75 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 1.12 against Karpaty attack 0.73 / defence 1.25, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 49% | Draw 29% | Karpaty 22%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 37%, Karpaty 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.