Ruh Lviv 0-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Ruh Lviv versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 13 September 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ruh Lviv have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 3D 5L at Arena Lviv — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Ruh Lviv's 1.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ruh Lviv 80% and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 60% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.32 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.962 / defence 1.268 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.631 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.213. Data: 34 Ruh Lviv games / 4 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.70. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.32 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.962 / def 1.268 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.631 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 45% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ruh Lviv's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (0.63x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.59
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.29
0.97
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
7%
13.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.97 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 0.80 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 80%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ruh Lviv) and 40% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Ruh Lviv's games and 40% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 40% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Ruh Lviv 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.32 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.97 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.63 / defence 1.09, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 45% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 60%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ruh Lviv managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.