Polessya 1-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Polessya at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Zorya Luhansk travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Polessya have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Tsentralnyi Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Zorya Luhansk have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Polessya carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Polessya, 0 for Zorya Luhansk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 52% versus Zorya Luhansk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 43% | Zorya Luhansk 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.34 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.035 / defence 0.950 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.007 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.005. Data: 42 Polessya games / 43 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 45% | Draw 29% | Zorya Luhansk 27%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Zorya Luhansk 3.70. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Polessya 60% | Zorya Luhansk 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 45% | Draw 29% | Zorya Luhansk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Polessya 1.34 / Zorya Luhansk 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.035 / def 0.950 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.007 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Polessya (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Zorya Luhansk xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?
Polessya 1 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 45% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Polessya and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Zorya Luhansk?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 1W | Draws 1 | Zorya Luhansk 0W.
What form are Polessya and Zorya Luhansk in?
Polessya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Polessya's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Zorya Luhansk's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
45%
2.23
29%
3.51
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.30
0.96
Zorya Luhansk xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Polessya and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Polessya and 0.96 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Polessya's recent record stands at 20W 12D 10L from 42 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 19L across 42 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zorya Luhansk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Polessya have managed 10W 8D 3L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 6W 7D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Polessya are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 0.98 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 20W 12D 10L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Polessya's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.81 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Polessya or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Polessya's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Polessya
3
Draws
1
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Zorya Luhansk?
From 7 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, Zorya Luhansk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Polessya 1-2 Zorya Luhansk.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Zorya Luhansk?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 67%, Zorya Luhansk 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Polessya) and 52% (Zorya Luhansk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Zorya Luhansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Polessya's games and 57% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Polessya vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Polessya's recent games and 52% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Zorya Luhansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Polessya and Zorya Luhansk drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.34 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.96 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 45% | Draw 29% | Zorya Luhansk 27%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 43%, Zorya Luhansk 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.