Oleksandria 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oleksandria have posted 5W 3D 2L at CSC Nika — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.80 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at CSC Nika this season.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Oleksandria's favour (2.40 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Vorskla Poltava in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Oleksandria 2W, Vorskla Poltava 2W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Oleksandria winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 42% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 47% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.84 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.287 / defence 1.034 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.952 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.105. Oleksandria carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.84 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Oleksandria games / 39 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 54% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 21%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Vorskla Poltava 4.76. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 60% | Vorskla Poltava 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 54% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Oleksandria 1.84 / Vorskla Poltava 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.287 / def 1.034 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.952 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vorskla Poltava xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 54% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (5 meetings): Oleksandria 2W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.29x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.95x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.02
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.93
1.09
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
3%
29.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.09 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 14W 12D 12L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 11W 9D 18L from 38 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Oleksandria against 1.11 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 5D 9L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.00 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.53 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Oleksandria go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-3 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 42%, Vorskla Poltava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Oleksandria) and 32% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Oleksandria have failed to score in 26% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 42% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Oleksandria's recent games and 32% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.84 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.09 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 54% | Draw 25% | Vorskla Poltava 21%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.42 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oleksandria win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.