Oleksandria 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Oleksandria welcome Lviv to NSK Olimpijs'kyj in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lviv stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lviv's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Oleksandria have won 0, Lviv 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Aug 2021, ended Oleksandria 1–1 Lviv — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Lviv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Lviv 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.133 / defence 0.998 | Lviv attack 0.891 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.316. Data: built from Oleksandria's last 24 games and Lviv's last 25.
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.52 | Draw 3.69 | Lviv 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Oleksandria 50% (last 10 home games) | Lviv 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Oleksandria 1.30 / Lviv 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.133 / def 0.998 | Lviv attack 0.891 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lviv xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Oleksandria vs Lviv FAQs
What time does Oleksandria vs Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Lviv kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 22 October 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Oleksandria 2 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 40% chance of winning, Lviv a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Oleksandria and Lviv will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Oleksandria vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.13x the league average against Lviv's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Oleksandria's last 24 games and Lviv's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.69
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.47
1.17
Lviv xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Oleksandria vs Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.17 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 11W 6D 7L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Lviv's form line: 5W 6D 13L from 24 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 10 home games (6W 0D 4L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Lviv travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.79 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
Oleksandria (Home) vs Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Oleksandria
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Oleksandria vs Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Oleksandria and Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Lviv have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.80 PPG; Lviv away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lviv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Oleksandria have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Oleksandria vs Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Oleksandria have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2023: Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Lviv 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oleksandria) and 30% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lviv in 40%; Lviv in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Oleksandria vs Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Oleksandria and Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Oleksandria and Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oleksandria's recent games and 30% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Lviv 2-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Lviv 1.17 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Lviv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.