Oleksandria 2-0 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kryvbas KR make the trip to KSK Nika to face Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Oleksandria (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 5W 0D 4L from 9 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Oleksandria. A 1.10 PPG lead over Kryvbas KR (1.60 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 83% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 83% versus Kryvbas KR 17%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 83% | Kryvbas KR 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.47 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.050 / defence 1.140 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.814 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.285. Data: 23 Oleksandria games / 6 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 30%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Kryvbas KR 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oleksandria at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 56% | Kryvbas KR 33%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 43% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Oleksandria 1.47 / Kryvbas KR 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.050 / def 1.140 | Kryvbas KR attack 0.814 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Kryvbas KR xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria 2 - 0 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 43% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 0.83 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Oleksandria's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Kryvbas KR's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Kryvbas KR's attack (0.81x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 23/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.80
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Kryvbas KR xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.19 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 6 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 1.17 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kryvbas KR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 0.33 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oleksandria have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Kryvbas KR in 17%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.00 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Kryvbas KR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Kryvbas KR in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kryvbas KR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Oleksandria
1
Draws
3
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
From 8 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 4, Kryvbas KR have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Oleksandria, 33% for Kryvbas KR — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Oleksandria and 33% for Kryvbas KR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Kryvbas KR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Oleksandria's games and 33% of Kryvbas KR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oleksandria vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Oleksandria's matches and 33% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.47 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Kryvbas KR landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Kryvbas KR attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 23/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 43% | Draw 26% | Kryvbas KR 30%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 83%, Kryvbas KR 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 83% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.50. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.