FC Kharkiv 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. LNZ Cherkasy are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Kharkiv winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 55% versus LNZ Cherkasy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.037 / defence 1.352 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.870 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.179. Data: 49 FC Kharkiv games / 18 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 26% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 60% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 26% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.02 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.037 / def 1.352 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.870 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.39
LNZ Cherkasy xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 26% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
26%
3.79
30%
3.37
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.41
1.39
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
15.16
16%
6.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.39 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 4W 4D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 7W 6D 7L from 20 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, LNZ Cherkasy are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.05 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 games (0.80 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 6D 7L in their last 20 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.22 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 67%, LNZ Cherkasy 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FC Kharkiv) and 44% (LNZ Cherkasy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 56%; LNZ Cherkasy in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 22% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Kharkiv's matches and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's.
Do FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.39 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.04 / defence 1.35 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 49/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 26% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 50%, LNZ Cherkasy 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.